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capt_cannonballs

alternate history

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Here is a topic i wanted to float to see what peoples thoughts are.

 

 

1) germany wins the battle of britain and goes ahead with operation sealion, before turning towards the east. thus keeping it a 1 front war.

2) when germany does attack russia japan also attacks russia. as hitler had hoped

3) japan never attacks pearl harbor. thus not giving rosevelt the excuse to enter the war.


 

what would the outcome of these actions possibly be? would the usa have entered ww2?


 

there was a tv show men in high castles that was a fictional history if the allies had lost the war. just wanted your ideas


 

feel free to blast me over the total off topic posting.

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Super Tester
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...in pretty much the same way that what if ships controlled by AIs pop up from nowhere and start attacking all countries indiscriminately.

 

Or if a modern-era guided missile cruiser is suddenly brought back in time to 1942.

 

Or if the ships of the World War 2 era were reincarnated to be girls and given equipment to help them fight an enemy from the abyss (金剛デース!).

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ST Coordinator
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We'll all be wearing Sailor Schoolgirl uniform and Speaking German/Japanese.

(Darn too much anime corrupting me)

 

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Super Tester
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I'd be wearing Zekamashi-fuku. Complete with the bow tie, plushie turrets...

 

スペードな誰にも負けません!

 

I won't lose to anyone in speed!

Edited by Haku

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Moderator
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Serious answer time :v

 

1) germany wins the battle of britain and goes ahead with operation sealion, before turning towards the east. thus keeping it a 1 front war.

 

Germany experiences a MUCH less effective Barbarossa against Soviet Russia, who now has more time to get their KV-1s and T-34s into production and amassed in sufficient numbers when the Germans finally attack. Armistice possible, with Western Europe under Nazi sphere of influence while Stalin controls Eastern Europe. If no armistice was reached, we might even see a Nazi-American alliance to repeal the Soviet Union and prevent them from taking over Europe.

 

2) when germany does attack russia japan also attacks russia. as hitler had hoped

 

Interesting thought. Likelihood of Japan striking northwards to fully capture Sakhalin and secure control over Mongolia. But Japan's biggest interest would have always been in China and Southeast Asia. It'd be unlikely that they would move to meet Germany who was attacking from the west. What we'd probably see is Russia signing an armistice with Japan, then immediately shifting units westwards to deal with the German advance, resulting in a stalemate. It might be possible that the Germans succeed in Barbarossa's objective in capturing the Caucuses oilfields if this happens.

 

3) japan never attacks pearl harbor. thus not giving roosevelt the excuse to enter the war.

 

USA would likely have entered the war anyway when Japan strikes to Southeast Asia, but will do so with their conventional Pacific fleet and implement War Plan Orange. However, they will be facing the full might of the 1st Air Fleet and the IJN at its peak condition, who has anticipated American movements and positioned their fleet accordingly to deal with it. This would likely result in the US suffering several naval setbacks, and with no "sneak attack' to solidify public opinion on the war, a fifth column may domestically in the US to pressure relinquishing its colonial territories to Japan in exchange for an armistice to stop a war they didn't really want to fight. However, if no such fifth column appears, then the rest of the war would have ended similar to how it did in our timeline - while American fleets suffer losses, their incredible industrial capacity replaces them with more advanced designs suited for WWII rapidly and overwhelms the IJN through sheer logistical capability.

 

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[1NATN]
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I have doubts as to whether Germany could have invaded even if they'd won the battle of Britain, they'd still have to deal with the RN and even if they achieved that the British soldiers and general population wouldn't have made it easy, it wouldn't have been a six week operation as in France.

In fact I think there would have been a very real possibility of Germany invading Britain and getting their asses kicked all the way back across the Channel.

 

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Senior Moderator
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An alternative to what you've suggested Jimmy, is that the Germans do take the Brittish Isles, but the RN get the Royal family out to Canada, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, India etc, and continue the fight from there.

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Super Tester
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I think people in general put too much emphasis on military strength and not economy and industrial output. Asking whether not attacking Pearl Harbour would've worked seems to have an awfully narrow scope to me.

 

If Germany never declared war on the United States, while I don't see them winning with the Soviet Union doing what they were doing, I can see them holding France, maybe a part of Italy, and certainly have defended Germany. And today in some small corner of the European Union, there would still be a form of the Nazi government, legitimate and recognised, if in a small area.

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Beta Tester
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If Germany never declared war on the United States, while I don't see them winning with the Soviet Union doing what they were doing, I can see them holding France, maybe a part of Italy, and certainly have defended Germany. And today in some small corner of the European Union, there would still be a form of the Nazi government, legitimate and recognised, if in a small area.

 

Doesn't really matter whether the Germans declare war on US.... Pretty sure US will declare war on Germany as well after the Attack on Pearl Harbor.

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Moderator
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Doesn't really matter whether the Germans declare war on US.... Pretty sure US will declare war on Germany as well after the Attack on Pearl Harbor.

 

Unlikely. There was a measurably significant Nazi fifth column in the U.S. that was lobbying Congress. No matter how much Roosevelt might have wanted to do so, he still could not leverage influence into a declaration of war against Germany (it took quite a bit to even get lend-lease passed, IIRC). The US could get only get a declaration war against Japan because of the domestic outcry over the "sneak attack" that enabled them to do such. Declaring war against Germany at the same time would've met with significant domestic opposition (with regards to fighting on two-fronts, and/or getting involved in "European business") and given Roosevelt's opponents a lot of material they could use to undermine his influence. Hitler's declaration of war against the U.S. took that decision out of U.S. hands and enabled them to expand their support of the western allies.

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Beta Tester
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So heres my thoughts

 

1) Even if the Germans won the battle of Britain, their navy had nowhere near the strength it required to cross the channel, they had less than 30 destroyers for their entire navy of which 8 or so were lost in the invasion of Norway. They also lacked specialised landing craft nor had any expertise in naval aviation, i.e no torpedo bombers or any prior skills in attacking Naval vessels in a coordinated organised manner. Therefore the only option the Germans had was to starve and bomb the Brits into submission with their bombers and submarines, while crucially also sinking enough Capital ships (like they did with the Royal Oak, Hood and the IJN with Prince of Wales and Repulse) of the Royal Navy to severely dent their pride and destroy to lose their last vestige of strength  (without losing any of their own Capital ships such as the Bismark). So long as the Royal Navy existed, having their army and airforce annihilated was not of much concern. (Hitler would have had a much easier time if he allowed Rommel and Guderian to capture the British expeditionary force at Dunkirk and deprive them of vital fighting men).

 

2) Russia was primarily a Land power, Japan was primarily a sea power, and given the Japanese performance at the Battles of Khalkhin Gol against superior Soviet armor, I doubt the Japanese were keen for a attack at all after that. Also even the Japanese would have been vastly outnumbered and outgunned in every aspect from infantry, armor and air, plus Japanese airpower, their one possible saving grace, would have been limited by the cold weather. So Germany would have to slug it out alone, which given time, would end in Russia's favour despite the Blitzkrieg tactics due to their superior numbers, brutal winters and better tanks KV and T-34 series (debatable, but when compared to early Pz 38t and Panzer 3 tanks)

 

3) The Japanese would have been forced to attack the US sooner or later  due to their sanctions and the American military presence in the Philippines blocking their path to conquering all of asia, and Pearl Harbor was their golden opportunity to destroy the US Navy in one blow in a confined space. If the Japanese happened to sink 1 or even two carriers at Pearl, along with damaging the oil tanks/repair facilities, they would have dominated the pacific much easier instead of sinking old WW1 vintage Battleships. Given the US navy would have been able to retreat to Australia in the worst case, and the superior US industrial capacity, the US would have won eventually, helped by their submarine raids that ravaged japanese shipping (possibly even sinking the Yamato and Musashi if they were ever encountered by them).

 

Roosevelt  would have simply urged Congress to modernise the military and wait for the inevitable, or even urge congress to approve large scale military manufacturing to help the Brits and Soviets under lend lease and build a base military industrial complex that would be ready for use in Americas eventual participation.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Blitzkreig95

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Member
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I personally agree with Synada. The short run of military development would rely heavily on the long run of economical development. The result of the new changes in course of history is simply more casualties and absence of United Kingdom active participation of modern warfare, that's all...

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