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keskparane

What does random mean?

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No not another MM thread. This one is about random containers.

Now my (and I expect most peoples) understanding is that random means something like the common definition of the word. In googles case that's "made, done, or happening without method".

Now I'm no betting man but I'm pretty sure the odds of getting the same role on a 16 sided die (think 16 collection items) are about 1/16 on the second throw. On the third throw they 256:1. On the forth they  4096:1.

When you start getting 256:1 odds on a regular basis you think of how "lucky" /s you are. When you start returning odds like 4096:1 you start to question just how random something really is. 

Edited by keskparane

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Nothing is random. Everything is determined from the moment the universe is created. We think things are random but they are not. We just don't have access to all the information needed to basically foresee the events that are going to happen. Maktub.

I'd like to think that each account has a 'RNG seed' that determines how good/bad our 'luck' in the game is.

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Yeah, this bugs me as well.

That said, there should be players out there who get all 16 items in 16 crates.

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1 hour ago, Paladinum said:

I'd like to think that each account has a 'RNG seed' that determines how good/bad our 'luck' in the game is.

This one makes sense. I have that one lucky clanmate that gets good stuffs out of the random roulette, but I have throw a lot more to get the same stuffs.

 

48 minutes ago, Grygus_Triss said:

That said, there should be players out there who get all 16 items in 16 crates

I think WG has been experimenting on that by the random bundles for Genova, and Infernal camos. This proves they should be able to apply the change on collections too.

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Of the past 17 crates I opened, 8 have been duplicates. At the time of typing this, I have 9/16 items.

You would think that with almost half of the collection still free, you'd get less duplicates. But hey, maybe next week I'll get 7 crates with a new item in each. which will balance probability. Or maybe some other player has already completed the collection with 16/16 boxes, also balancing probability.

I'll still get the entire collection, I'll be able to complete it with duplicates otherwise, so I'm not worried about missing out on that.

Though it is kind of annoying when you could otherwise spend it on camos or credits. And indeed, players with more luck probably ARE spending it on camos and credits.

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8 minutes ago, notyourfather said:

The higher the value the lower the chance.

Exactly. During one event I got the same collection item about 6 or more times in a row. The odds of that are  1/8.673617379884E-19:1

Edited by keskparane

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8 minutes ago, Grygus_Triss said:

Of the past 17 crates I opened, 8 have been duplicates.

Duplicates understood. But the same duplicate?

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6 minutes ago, keskparane said:

Duplicates understood. But the same duplicate?

At least a few duplicate duplicates.

Can someone who knows more math than I please calculate on average how many crates you would need to open to get one of each, assuming every item has an equal drop chance?

I can say that the number of containers will be between 16 and 61 before you have enough duplicates to buy everything.

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you need legislation to force gatcha companies disclose them drop rates.:crab:

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2 hours ago, Grygus_Triss said:

At least a few duplicate duplicates.

Can someone who knows more math than I please calculate on average how many crates you would need to open to get one of each, assuming every item has an equal drop chance?

I can say that the number of containers will be between 16 and 61 before you have enough duplicates to buy everything.

I think the odds are 54 containers to get 1 of each of 16.

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For the current Resolute and Rapid collection, at present I have collected 13 of the 16 items with 2 duplicates. One of the current collection item were exchanged with 4 duplicates. Among the 18 containers, 5 were given for free via Daily Supplies and Directive rewards, and all of the rest were purchased with all the Mediterranean tokens I have ever earned and collected.

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What does random mean?

Snake_eyes.jpg

Random

 

I usually or mostly get my prizes in the last bundle.

After reading some of the forum theories, I still have yet to crack the technique.

Edited by S0und_Theif

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