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InterconKW

Winrate is Meaningless

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Yes, it is.

The first group of people who are going to jump on me for saying this are people who are good at WoWs or at least understand it. They say "you can division" or "you can do things to help objectives and win games."

The second group of people are people why may not be good at WoWs that do not carry their weight, or just perform "average" and are along for the ride, be it positive or negative WR. They feel they don't have an influence on WR or just don't want to admit they are bad, which admittedly is a hard thing to do.

But that's not the point of this thread. I've heard you all many times.

I'm on a streak of bad luck. Currently I'm grinding in high tier (Iowa) and have just been... unable to win. My average damage and kills sit 22k and 0.2 higher than the server average but my winrate is an abysmal 43%. Factually speaking, I've gone against repeated fishing divisions of top clans I respect including [VOR] and... they are almost always on the enemy team. 

My team gets the same recurring... bad players. A guy with over 2000 Atago games who gets deleted with 20k average every time? 3/4 of the times we meet he is on my team. Donskoi with 41% winrate that suicides into caps and doesn't speak English? On my team twice in one day. DDs that plan no escape, get radared and die, then blame allies or call the whole team campers? Yes, I'm seeing the same people over and over.

IMG_20180530_134615.pngIMG_20180530_134543.pngIMG_20180530_134820.png
 

Names censored, these are players I've gotten on my side repeatedly in the last week alone (4 times, 2 times and 3 times respectively) - The list could go on for a long time, but it isn't worth it. In Tier 7-10, mind you.

I understand certain forumers here have divved with me, they can confirm. My luck with teams this last 4 weeks has been atrocious.


So why doesn't winrate matter?

To get to the point, in the current state of WoWs... the playerbase is unsaveable. Many players in the game make no influence on the game to create a victory, and in fact may outright be liabilities... deadweights for their team to carry. In an experiment, over 50 games a month ago, I sampled the 3rd, 6th and 9th placing players on each team, ignoring people I knew already like friends I met, or people in well known clans. Approximately 58% of nearly 300 players sampled had ratings on warships.today of under 800. The median winrate of players is not 50%... it's 48%. This took a lot of effort. Some people here may know about it as I posted it to some clan discords.

Even in division with factually above average players for much of the last 18 days, my winrate still sits at 45% over 70 games.

Simply, for short spans of time (1 month? 2 months?), factually speaking, you can just be shortstrawed by the matchmaking. No matter what you do, you'll get teams with terrible players over and over again and have defeat after defeat snatched from the jaws of victory over and over again by your supposed "allies".

Underlying Issue.

The playerbase is just... so bad that short term winrate is completely dependent on luck right now. There is nothing even a triple division can do if the other 9 players repeatedly will never contribute to victory.

World of Warships is a team game. Every player has a part to play as one of 12 players in a team, and that team will never win if enough players do not do their part. 

A lot of players are in-the-dark about game mechanics, their roles, basic strategies etc. and do not go out of their way to learn them. If questioned, they are ignorant or angered by their low statistics and make up all kinds of excuses. For example, many capping destroyers don't plan an escape in case of radar, or smoke up in front of hydros etc and blame the team for a lack of support when they die, many BBs get pushed back to the border and blame irrational fear, many cruisers just overextend and cannot stay alive because they don't understand the need to.

It's going a bit too far.

More than ever, the playerbase needs to be educated. On the importance of statistics as a tool to improve. On playing well. And it needs to be made easy.

Please.

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27 minutes ago, InterconKW said:

In an experiment, over 50 games a month ago, I sampled the 3rd, 6th and 9th placing players on each team, ignoring people I knew already like friends I met, or people in well known clans.

This is decision is debate able. You need to be the one spearheading against good enemies on the other side if you plan to carry for the win because...

 

29 minutes ago, InterconKW said:

World of Warships is a team game. Every player has a part to play as one of 12 players in a team, and that team will never win if enough players do not do their part.

...back to the driver's on a freeway analogy ( from NoZoupForYou ) especially for randoms and random with less people.

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Just a thought... what i have experienced is that WR is a lot dependent on the time at which you are playing your games. Does your sampling experiment consider that? Given the lifestyle of games/players and geographical location they tend to log into WOWS and play games only during a specific time of the day during specific set of days of the week. So its totally possible that your sample consisted of the same set of players/divs over and over again given there log in times. 

 

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Interestingly enough same thing happened to me in Iowa.

Like you say if you look at the team potential many times the potential is for a loss. It's swings and roundabouts but it really bites because IMO it will tend to hit 1 ship really bad (purely by coincidence) and that sucks when you don't want a boat with low wr.

However I cant help but think that if teams were matched really well then overall you could expect all winrates to fall within a closer range. Thereby creating a situation were you could still end up with the same team match ups, just all winrates would be closer to 50%.

I do think that there is a definite advantage for a good division, and can't help but feel that is slightly unfair for solo players. Winrate aside the returns from multiple losses are pitiful and I think solo players can get screwed over somewhat.

For me I like to I like to think of WoWs as less of a game and more of a product. It helps me retain a small portion of my sanity.

^ sidetracked :Smile_hiding:

Is there a single link anywhere to the wiki? I view that as the best source of up to date information.

 

TLDR; Winrate will even out in the long run, but solo players are screwed over by divs. I agree that education should be more obvious.

Edited by keskparane

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All I can say is:

- Win rate is a very complex topic. 

- Everyone goes through a crap phase every once in a while where every ally is just a soil-covered, ugly, freshly-picked potato from the most heavily fertilised potato farm in the world, game after game after game. 

- There are things to do to prevent your win rate going into free-fall. I hear tier 4 is lovely. Make some nice blubber products and seal fur coats along the way. 

- Win rate should be used in long term assessments of player influence, and not short term assessments. 50 games is way too short. 1000 games is a better sample size. 

- Win rate is influenced by which ship class you play. A good destroyer or CV player who plays to the objectivr will have a much better time with win rates. Cruiser and battleship players who farm damage typically have a harder time. 

- Divisioning may not raise your win rate. Nobody talks about division design but the so called 'fishing divs' are an example of good division design. A DD-CL-BB division is going to dominate games much easier than a BB-BB-BB division (bad division design). 

Hope this helps. Good luck and fair seas! 

@Ordrazz would you agree with what I've said above?

Edited by LordTyphoon

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Beta Tester
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I remember waaaay back in like..2012/2013 I got super into WoT after being very casual.

My skill rating and damage went up at like a 60 degree angle on a graph.... my win rate went from 57% down to 50%.....but my skill was improving

 

:o woah

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Beta Tester
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Statistically, it makes sense. Let's say the matchmaker is putting together teams for a battle. In the queue there's you (solo), an autowin division (3), and 20 other solo players. You only have a 43% chance of being placed on the same team as the division, but a 57% chance of being on the other team. ie. 9 slots for randoms alongside the division; 12 slots for randoms opposing them.

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Super Tester
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Well... its meaningless if taken out of context, but you gotta remember that stats measure past performance. Like it or not, a 60% player has have won 6/10 games instead of the 5/10 that a 50%er would have. 

There ARE really cases where you just can't win, but that threshold is determined by a few factors... some of which are entirely within your control. For example, Driving a good/OP ship in a really OP/good div will usually net you way more wins than the average joe grinding his ship.

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[LYNMF]
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7 hours ago, InterconKW said:

Factually speaking, I've gone against repeated fishing divisions of top clans I respect including [VOR] and... they are almost always on the enemy team. 

there, [VOR] on the enemy team...with the standard DD-CA-BB div, no offense to them, great team as always.

forgot to mention, balanced MM with the same DD-CA-BB division in own team under [AUSNZ].

egWJ5qO.jpg

 

btw, my team comprised of a player from [SALT], makes the game more salty, :cap_rambo:just kidding

you are right. winrate is meaningless.

even a top division won't have it easy.

i would expect the opfor to play to the best of their abilities as i do of my team.

no one wants anyone to give the other team an easy win.

RNG in MM & gameplay makes sure no 2 games are alike. it keeps the game  fresh and interesting.

more importantly, enjoy the game.

try not to dwell too much in numbers or statistics, lol.

Edited by Twilight6797

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4 hours ago, InterconKW said:

A lot of players are in-the-dark about game mechanics, their roles, basic strategies etc. and do not go out of their way to learn them.

This, and I can't really blame the players. How do new players learn what their HE pen is? Or what is overmatch? Even now we have some CVs not knowing about strafing and manual dropping, their removal from tiers 4 and 5 has made it even worse.

WG really needs to implement more and better tutorials to educate the players. Right now they are being lazy about it and just outsourcing the job to the CCs and wiki editors.

Youtube videos are great, but stuff like this should be in the game right from the get-go. If players aren't going to seek out that information, then bring the information to them. 

 

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Assuming the 40/40/20 loss/win/skill ratio similar to tanks, your amount of skill will influence 20% of the games you play.  

The way I look at it if you’re a 41%er, you can influence 1 out of 20 those skill-based games (eg. 5% of games), conversely a 55%er will influence 75% of games which depended on player skill (15 out of 20 games).

Just count the games where you’re up against fishing divisions as the 40% auto-lose category.

simplified explanation, but it works for me.

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Beta Tester
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well it means that you just picked the wrong ship for the day.

you picked the ship that is due to lose and not win.

simple rule if the ship you pick is losing then stop playing it and try to find the ships that are due to win for the day.

but then again 2 days out of 7 you will lose anyways no matter what ship or tier you play in

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[MEGA]
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Just now, Somedude_Yudachi said:

Some clans still use wr as a criteria to accept a new member or not

*SIGH*

and they arnt wrong about it, some competitive clans use theses to ensure that their new members are up to the clans standards, and it's pretty much the most relievable method to measure a person's metal 

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[TDA]
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54 minutes ago, stratmania said:

Well... its meaningless if taken out of context, but you gotta remember that stats measure past performance. Like it or not, a 60% player has have won 6/10 games instead of the 5/10 that a 50%er would have. 

There ARE really cases where you just can't win, but that threshold is determined by a few factors... some of which are entirely within your control. For example, Driving a good/OP ship in a really OP/good div will usually net you way more wins than the average joe grinding his ship.

 

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44 minutes ago, Twilight6797 said:

more importantly, enjoy the game.

try not to dwell too much in numbers or statistics, lol.

^This.

Stop thinking about winrate. It just a freaking number. More importantly, don't let it ruin ur game.

Just have fun and blow stuff away.

P/s:I dont know how much this tread been make and reply the same thing.

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[HMASW]
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1 minute ago, ArchKongou said:

^This.

Stop thinking about winrate. It just a freaking number. More importantly, don't let it ruin ur game.

Just have fun and blow stuff away.

P/s:I dont know how much this tread been make and reply the same thing.

Exactly !! Hear hear

+1

 

 

W R = two letters from the English alphabet

 

 

 

(i wonder how long this thread will stay viable for, before it goes off the rails?):Smile_trollface:

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[MEGA]
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4 minutes ago, Ordrazz said:

(i wonder how long this thread will stay viable for, before it goes off the rails?):Smile_trollface:

and by off the rails I suppose you mean whoever comes and disagree?

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40 minutes ago, Ordrazz said:

Exactly !! Hear hear

+1

W R = two letters from the English alphabet

(i wonder how long this thread will stay viable for, before it goes off the rails?):Smile_trollface:

I disagree. 

I find win rate a good representation of how people do in real life. 

Not care and just having fun? You probably do that with a lot of things in life - just plod along and if things are mediocre, that will do. 

Trying hard and finding ways to do better? You're probably going to do well in most things in life, giving things your best effort and having no regrets. 

Kinda says a lot about a person by the amount of effort they make. 

Edited by LordTyphoon

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