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The Truth about Getting Gremy and Nikol, AKA How Santa REALLY Works

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9
[KMMHS]
Member
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So perhaps you've heard that you can get amongst the 2 most OP ships in the game, AKA the so-called WG "Russia Bias", the Gremy and Nikolai, with Santa's presents. And perhaps you were wondering what were the odds of you getting them by spamming a few presents(AKA gambling).


5vw5ll.jpg
 

Well, having gotten every single available premium through the Santa present system, I feel I can shed some light on how the process actually works. But be forewarned, if you really want the Gremy and Nikolai(at least reliably), you'll have to spent upwards of $200USD, up to a maximum of about $400(this depends highly on the number premiums you already have, but not their tiers.

But to understand how this works, you have to first know the hidden "rules" of the santa game.

Firstly, you will never receive a premium you already have unless you roll the same ship twice in the same "batch". I can very confidently say this because over 100 presents opened, I never got a ship I already owned, whereas some people who have only opened 20 or 10 presents but bought and opened them in large "batches" received duplicates. This is okay if you get a duplicate of a t7 or t8 ship as you get a large amount of dubloons in payout, but otherwise its quite a waste of money to get duplicate of low tier ships e.g. Ishizuchi, which results in only a small number of dubloons while still resetting your Pseudo-random distribution counter(see below). The game seems to check what ships on the pool of 20(see below) you own every time you buy/accept presents. Therefore, it is far more advisable to buy presents in small groups, preferably single, opening it, then washing and repeating(this sounds tedious doesn't really take that long).

Secondly, the engine uses a pseudo-random distribution for the probability that you will receive a premium ship. What is PRD? It basically means that you have a counter on your account for each type of present. This counter increases each time you fail to get a premium (i.e. opening camo/flags) and resets to zero each time you get a premium. The higher your counter, the more likely you will get a premium on your next present. How do I know this? The frequency of getting a premium ship was too "constrained", most of the time I got 1 premium ever 4-6 presents(captain and admiral) opened. In a true random distribution, you will get long periods without any premiums, and periods where you get 3-4 premiums in quick succession. In my experience, the "gap" between each premium was never less than 1, mostly 3 or 4, and never more than 5. So you can reasonably expect to get a premium every roughly 5 presents opened or so(or about $15 USD per premium for captain's presents). This is very likely PRD as it is a method that game developers often use to prevent players(gamblers?) from getting disenchanted and quitting from having a long patch of bad "luck", or jealousy at other player's "luck". There's no real "luck", though, only hard mathematics.

Thirdly, for captain's presents, which I mostly used, each time I rolled a premium ship, the engine is much more likely to give you a ship of a lower "tier" out of the pool of available premium. E.g. my first premium was emden, then texas, then marblehead, then anshan, arizona, etc etc, through to tier 7 and t8. I highly suspect that the 2 "Russia Bias" premiums are considered as "tier 9" for this santa game as I got them only right at the end, with Lo Yang in between. What this means is that if you already have many or all of the low tier premiums, buying captain's presents is a pretty good idea.

I would NOT recommend admirals presents for most players who already have t8 premiums as, from what I understand from other players' accounts, the PRD odds for getting a premium with the admiral present is about the same as captain, but the only difference is that it is more likely to give you a higher tier ship, which is pointless if you already have t8 and t7 premiums.

The pool of ships available for santa is given on https://worldofwarships.asia/en/news/specials-and-events/santas-wanted/ . Ignore the part where it lists premiums that are listed under each present, from what I gather it is possible to get every available ship with every available present, with the possible exception of Prinz Eugen.

So to sum it up, if you already have many low/mid-tier premiums listed on the list of 20, e.g. Emden, Texas, Marblehead, Anshan, etc, then it's worthwhile to play captain's presents, but buy them in small batches, preferably one-by-one. If you have neither high nor low-tier, it may be worthwhile to buy Admiral's presents. This also means that you should check what premiums your friend already before you buy presents for them.

I did not extensively test commander's presents(the $1USD ones) as I bought 10 of them initially and did not get a single premium out of the batch. In hindsight, it may still be a decent investment though it is tedious to buy and open them in small batches.

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[LBAS]
Super Tester
1,287 posts

Wow, really?

 

I don't think it was based on mathematics at all.

 

You could choose what container you wanted, and you received what was in that container.

 

I myself bought 5 x $3.00 containers and received 3 ships I didn't have already including the Prinz Eugen.

 

It was luck of the draw, plain and simple.

 

"Hidden rules" pfffttttt.

 

If you spent upwards of $200, I feel sorry for you and your wallet.

 

But hey, at least you are contributing to make the game better..........

Edited by LtDan_IceCream

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Beta Tester
908 posts

I got the Nikolai on a $3 box, I bought 5 x $1 boxes and 3 x $3 boxes. I was just lucky, then I proceed to spend another $100 bucks and got tonnes of T8 and T7 ships.

 

The only thing I agree on was that I had many premium ships prior to this event. So I was given some decent ships as I couldn't get duplicates that I already had.

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[MEGA]
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I got the Nikolai on a $3 box, I bought 5 x $1 boxes and 3 x $3 boxes. I was just lucky, then I proceed to spend another $100 bucks and got tonnes of T8 and T7 ships.

 

The only thing I agree on was that I had many premium ships prior to this event. So I was given some decent ships as I couldn't get duplicates that I already had.

 

i do agree with the captain crate>admiral crate, the 3$ crates seem much better then the 5$ crates

So perhaps you've heard that you can get amongst the 2 most OP ships in the game, AKA the so-called WG "Russia Bias", the Gremy and Nikolai, with Santa's presents. And perhaps you were wondering what were the odds of you getting them by spamming a few presents(AKA gambling).

 

5vw5ll.jpg

 

Well, having gotten every single available premium through the Santa present system, I feel I can shed some light on how the process actually works. But be forewarned, if you really want the Gremy and Nikolai(at least reliably), you'll have to spent upwards of $200USD, up to a maximum of about $400(this depends highly on the number premiums you already have, but not their tiers.

 

But to understand how this works, you have to first know the hidden "rules" of the santa game.

 

Firstly, you will never receive a premium you already have unless you roll the same ship twice in the same "batch". I can very confidently say this because over 100 presents opened, I never got a ship I already owned, whereas some people who have only opened 20 or 10 presents but bought and opened them in large "batches" received duplicates. This is okay if you get a duplicate of a t7 or t8 ship as you get a large amount of dubloons in payout, but otherwise its quite a waste of money to get duplicate of low tier ships e.g. Ishizuchi, which results in only a small number of dubloons while still resetting your Pseudo-random distribution counter(see below). The game seems to check what ships on the pool of 20(see below) you own every time you buy/accept presents. Therefore, it is far more advisable to buy presents in small groups, preferably single, opening it, then washing and repeating(this sounds tedious doesn't really take that long).

 

Secondly, the engine uses a pseudo-random distribution for the probability that you will receive a premium ship. What is PRD? It basically means that you have a counter on your account for each type of present. This counter increases each time you fail to get a premium (i.e. opening camo/flags) and resets to zero each time you get a premium. The higher your counter, the more likely you will get a premium on your next present. How do I know this? The frequency of getting a premium ship was too "constrained", most of the time I got 1 premium ever 4-6 presents(captain and admiral) opened. In a true random distribution, you will get long periods without any premiums, and periods where you get 3-4 premiums in quick succession. In my experience, the "gap" between each premium was never less than 1, mostly 3 or 4, and never more than 5. So you can reasonably expect to get a premium every roughly 5 presents opened or so(or about $15 USD per premium for captain's presents). This is very likely PRD as it is a method that game developers often use to prevent players(gamblers?) from getting disenchanted and quitting from having a long patch of bad "luck", or jealousy at other player's "luck". There's no real "luck", though, only hard mathematics.

 

Thirdly, for captain's presents, which I mostly used, each time I rolled a premium ship, the engine is much more likely to give you a ship of a lower "tier" out of the pool of available premium. E.g. my first premium was emden, then texas, then marblehead, then anshan, arizona, etc etc, through to tier 7 and t8. I highly suspect that the 2 "Russia Bias" premiums are considered as "tier 9" for this santa game as I got them only right at the end, with Lo Yang in between. What this means is that if you already have many or all of the low tier premiums, buying captain's presents is a pretty good idea.

 

I would NOT recommend admirals presents for most players who already have t8 premiums as, from what I understand from other players' accounts, the PRD odds for getting a premium with the admiral present is about the same as captain, but the only difference is that it is more likely to give you a higher tier ship, which is pointless if you already have t8 and t7 premiums.

 

The pool of ships available for santa is given on https://worldofwarships.asia/en/news/specials-and-events/santas-wanted/ . Ignore the part where it lists premiums that are listed under each present, from what I gather it is possible to get every available ship with every available present, with the possible exception of Prinz Eugen.

 

So to sum it up, if you already have many low/mid-tier premiums listed on the list of 20, e.g. Emden, Texas, Marblehead, Anshan, etc, then it's worthwhile to play captain's presents, but buy them in small batches, preferably one-by-one. If you have neither high nor low-tier, it may be worthwhile to buy Admiral's presents. This also means that you should check what premiums your friend already before you buy presents for them.

 

I did not extensively test commander's presents(the $1USD ones) as I bought 10 of them initially and did not get a single premium out of the batch. In hindsight, it may still be a decent investment though it is tedious to buy and open them in small batches.

 

very nicely done guide, i suggest you also post this on NA and EU as well because the forum population there is much bigger then here

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[SIF]
Senior Moderator
2,563 posts

Hate to burst your bubble XP, that was well written, but what's in a crate is not calculated until you press the open crate button.

 

Doesn't matter how many crates you have, the same basic algorithm is used each time, you get what you get.

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Beta Tester
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953 battles

Bought a batch of 5 captain gifts, got a Gremyaschy, Blyskawicka, and an Anshan out of them. Bought another batch of 5 captain gits, only got a bunch of flags and camos..... Hmmmmm.....:sceptic:

 

 

Anyway, +1 for your hard work composing this thread.

Edited by Artisto81

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well, on new year i buy 3 of captain box (buy, open then buy again).. funny thing is, i get 3x 1.000 doubloon....

 

so i guess my luck is still good. 3.000 doubloon for $9 is cheap...

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9
[KMMHS]
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Wow, really?

 

I don't think it was based on mathematics at all.

 

You could choose what container you wanted, and you received what was in that container.

 

I myself bought 5 x $3.00 containers and received 3 ships I didn't have already including the Prinz Eugen.

 

It was luck of the draw, plain and simple.

 

"Hidden rules" pfffttttt.

 

If you spent upwards of $200, I feel sorry for you and your wallet.

 

But hey, at least you are contributing to make the game better..........

 

Actually, if you read what I said, your example's perfectly within the realm of possibility. Now if you got 3 premiums in 3 boxes opened one after another, that would be a better counterargument.

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9
[KMMHS]
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Hate to burst your bubble XP, that was well written, but what's in a crate is not calculated until you press the open crate button.

 

I do not see how this refutes anything I said.

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Alpha Tester
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I must be the only sailor in the server who didn't get a ship in the boxes. :(

 

Lots of camo and signals, no ships in sight.

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Beta Tester
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Hate to burst your bubble XP, that was well written, but what's in a crate is not calculated until you press the open crate button.

 

Doesn't matter how many crates you have, the same basic algorithm is used each time, you get what you get.

 

Its generated at buying time. 

 

I bought 5 x $3 boxes and got 3 scarnhorsts.

 

Other notable batches were multiple lo yangs.

 

I bought in batches of 5 at a time.

Edited by SlamUez

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[LBAS]
Super Tester
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Actually, if you read what I said, your example's perfectly within the realm of possibility. Now if you got 3 premiums in 3 boxes opened one after another, that would be a better counterargument.

 

That's what I meant.

 

First 3 boxes were;

 

1. Emden

2. Blyskawica

3. Prinz Eugen

 

The next 2 were camouflages

 

Please, explain away.........

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I must be the only sailor in the server who didn't get a ship in the boxes. :(

 

Lots of camo and signals, no ships in sight.

 

 bought 5 admiral, 12 commander, 5 captain, then 20 commander, 10 captain and then also recieved 2 seperate containers and that was the batches I bought them in.

I hvae so many camos i am set for the next 1000 battles (384 NY2017, 334 halloween 2016,194 ocean soul, 35 restless soul, 17  aniversiary and 98 type 6)   I also have so many papa papa flags that I will get the Missouri in the next couple of months 600+.

I also have 12 out of the 20 ships in the SCs.

After reading the OP got the first SC a texas wit 10 pt comander bought 2x2 captain boxes

 

Edited by Moganite

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Super Tester
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splurged for my Nikolai. about 10 admirals, 20 captain boxes in 1 week, then in my next paycheck spent $120ish and got her then. The only rule these boxes follow is the fact that if you buy them in batches of 10, and you roll say 3 nikolais, you'll get three nikolais (1 actual ship, 2 credit into doubloons), as the contents of the box are decided when they are put in your port. NOT when you open them like Leng says.

 

In my opinion if you are hunting for ships, the safest amount of boxes to buy is sets of 8. But its all luck of the draw and you could just roll 7 nikolais or something lol.

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This summary pretty much accords exactly with my experience with the santa crates.

 

I bought about 40 $3 crates all up in batches of 3 - 5. I already owned quite a few of the lower tier premiums (plus Warspite) and received the following, in this order:

 

Emden, Marblehead, Indianapolis, Arizona, Atlanta, Blyskawica, Tirpitz, Anshan.  Interspersed by about 14,000 doubloons all up and various camos and flags. I thought it was worth it.

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Just wanted to share my experience in case anyone wanted to grab some presents before they end. I received a bunch from some friends plus I ended up buying some after as well as I am pretty new to WOWS and wanted to support the game which up to this point has cost me nothing to play.


 

I would have opened at least 140 of these by now. Mostly Captain and commander ones but 40-50 admirals also. When I opened my first I had no premium ships and only several tier 3 ships like St. Louis and Tenryu. My observation is that at the start the drop rate is rubbish. It must record how much you have spent with your account because honestly the more presents I bought the way better the drop rate of premiums got. I'm talking night and day difference First 50 I opened were 2 Emdens, very few doubloons and all the rest were flags and camo. Yep pretty bad. But I soldiered on.


 

To support what the OP has said, yes definitely buy them in small groups say 3 or so. It chooses what you get at the moment you buy. It looks at what premiums you have already and will give you drops of ones you don't already have (if the RNG gods give you the container drop obviously) If you buy them in big lots you may get lucky and get several premium ships you did not have but get duplicates of the same ship. This sucks as you could have had a new ship instead of one you just got a minute ago. I cannot stress this BUY THEN IN SMALL LOTS! For example just yesterday bought 5 captains. First one LO YANG! Second 1500 doubloons. Third LO YANG! Fourth 1500 doubloons. Fifth 1500 Doubloons. Yes I did get the doubloons value of the second Lo Yang, but if I had bought them in smaller lots I would have got a different ship and not a duplicate. I have not done them one by one but from my observations it would be they way to go. Just very tedious. I do think the captains ones are the best to go for. Admirals ones have been a complete waste for me.


 

To sum up, I have probably spent $200 Australian dollars on top of the presents I had already received. In all of them only 1 has been premium time and only 1 has been credits. Yes just one for each! Maybe got at most 25000 doubloons, not including doubloons from several duplicate ships. Lots and lots of flags and camo. By now I have I think all premiums available from the drops but still no Nikolai or Molotov. For me definitely drop rate of ship containers has exploded in last 2 days. Past 48 hrs I have got Tirpitz and Prinz Eugen in same 5 captain lot. I ended up buying Graf Spee, but every other premium I have has come from the container drops. Only 2 I want that still elude me are Nikolai and Molotov. Hope this helps if you decide to buy some to try to get heaps of new premiums, beware it can become costly.


 

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