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GfTwR

Akizuki vs Khabarovsk; The Fire War!

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Member
29 posts
5,610 battles

First, let me said that English is not my language, but I'll try my best.


TL;DR Akizuki is the better than Khabarovsk at starting fire.

 

Alright, here we go!

 

I've been waiting far a really long time to get my hand on this IJN ship, and let me be honest. Everyone know that tier X destroyer, the Khabarovsk, was the really annoying fire starter DD, right? What if I told you that, the Akizuki could start more fire than the Khabarovsk could.

 

Let's do some calculation, shall we?

 

Let assume that 1 shell could start only 1 fire. At stock configuration, Akizuki could fire total of 8(guns) * 20(RoF) = 160 shells of 5% fire chance while Khabarovsk could send out 8(guns) * 12(RoF) = 96 shells of 8%. Assume that each ship is shooting at tier own tier, so I have to multiply the Anti-Fire Coefficients into the there fire chance.

 

Akizuki: 5 * 0.6337(tier VIII) = 3.1685%, with 160 shells

Khabarovsk: 8 * 0.5005(tier X) = 4.004%, with 96 shells

 

After that, calculate these 2 at their max HE spamming configuration

 

Akizuki max (BFT+DE): (5+3)*0.6337 = 5.0696, with 176 shells

Khabarovsk max (BTF+DE+MBM3): (8+3)*0.5005 = 5.5055, with 120 shells

 

Now I'll use binomial probability to calculate the probability to start amount of fire in 1 minute if all the shell they fire hit the target.

Search wikipedia if you want to know what it is.

I use this probability because we know the maximum of shell each ship could fire in one minute (n) and also the probability to start fire in each shell (p), the rest is to calculate the amount of fire from 0 to n time to obtain the probability of the amount of fire could occur in 1 minute.

With spreadsheet program, I could calculate all the probability and plot graph easily.

DU2XOWz.png 

Now, let's look at the graph

gkc5rAC.png

All of these line look like the a nice example of PMF of binomial ('cause it's binomial!). Still, it's still too rough to be able to understand, so I'll use inverse CDF of this graph

BR8P78Z.png

That's a lot easier to understand. By integrating all the the probability from that point to [n], we get the probability of starting fire 'at least' [k] fires in 1 minute. And as you can see Akizuki has higher probability to start the same amount of fires than Khabarovsk in both stock and top form. And that's not just when shooting at the their tier.

RqmRTbR.png 

yEMhjyV.png

 

Akizuki has higher to start any amount of fire than the Khabarovsk. So, don't feel bad to use your HE, even though they do less to none damage, you could start more fire than the Khabarovsk :v 

 

 

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Beta Tester
1,043 posts
4,300 battles

All these numbers and graphs are making my headspin. If this was your work, wow, good job for you, but you just went overboard proving something not really important.

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Member
29 posts
5,610 battles

All these numbers and graphs are making my headspin. If this was your work, wow, good job for you, but you just went overboard proving something not really important.

 

Maybe it's overboard for other people. But for me, this is just another simple calculation I have to do at university everyday.

So, yeah... It's completely normal to me. :D 

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Member
1,386 posts
8,230 battles

The annoying thing is Khaba's HE has 22mm penetration and can damage battleship superstructure and Akizuki's only have 19mm and cannot damage T8+ battleships' superstructure which is also 19mm (pen>armor→penetration, pen<=armor→non-pen)

Edited by _Halcyon

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Alpha Tester
6 posts

Common burning tactic on both Khaba and Aki (as far as I've seen) was setting fire as much as possible, then switch to AP for max damage. So, full damaging potential would have to taken that into account AP bombardment damage as well, not just HE damage. In this case, as far as my experience goes, Aki has higher DPS than Khaba, and with smaller shell, attacking superstructure cause less overpenetration, resulting in even more damaging potential.

 

Now, I did not digest mathematics on a regular basics...soo....I'll leave the calculation in GfTwR's hand.

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Super Tester
7,542 posts
7,978 battles

Does an HE shell have to penetrate to have a chance to set a fire?

 

No. Fire is a magical thing in WoWs. You can see your shells blocked still set fire. You can have no damage from saturated part of the ship, but setting fire will magically earn damage. Heck I have seen I shell hit starting 2 fires, but that was probably server de-sync issue.

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Member
313 posts
10,045 battles

 

No. Fire is a magical thing in WoWs. You can see your shells blocked still set fire. You can have no damage from saturated part of the ship, but setting fire will magically earn damage. Heck I have seen I shell hit starting 2 fires, but that was probably server de-sync issue.

 

In world of warshps, the weather effect is not just a visual effect, it always rains gasoline 

that explains why steel can be ignited 

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Alpha Tester
6 posts

Umm...okay, calculation is absolutely, positively, not useful in a game based upon probability matrixes and lots of number.

 

Like...seriously, that's like saying aerodynamic isn't useful in a flight simulator game.

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