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TE_Deathskyz

USN Fighters vs IJN Fighters. A detailed analysis.

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Super Tester
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Foreword: I hereby take no responsibility for any brain damage, blank faces, dead brain cells and/or incomprehension leading to insanity. The mechanics here are not designed by me nor anyone who helped with this thread.

 

Welcome to World of MathShips!

"I will never use this silly Math things" - College Student

 

So this topic keeps popping up a lot. And we have some of the most heated discussions regarding this.

The topic of USN CVs vs IJN CVs. And how some will argue that its the USN CVs that are better, while others advocate that the IJN CVs dominate the sky.

 

So with the help of many people, we spent hours calculating via a Skype chat that effectively killed 80% of our brains.

 

So this is the result. Thanks to Amade, Haku, Footscray, IJN_Yura and many others who helped try to understand

 

This is how AA Mechanics and Fighter vs Fighter Mechanics work.

Firstly, it is NOT, repeat, NOT a Damage over Time.

So that Average DPS you see is NOT really Damage Per Second.

Secondly, ONE squad can only engage ONE squad at a time.

 

AA mechanics work like this. (Values here are all in top configuration, without skills or modules)

Every second, a calculation is performed with this formula:

Chance of 1 Squad to shoot down 1 Plane:

Total DPS / Survivability = (X)*100%/sec

 

So for example in Tier 4s, a Langley Fighter Squadron meets a Hosho Fighter Squadron.

We know that the Langley fighter squad has a average DPS of 31 (per fighter) so the Squad has a DPS of 186 and a survivability of 760 whereas the Hosho fighter squad has an average DPS of 28 (per fighter) so the squad has a DPS of 112 and a survivability of 780.

 

So when they vie in battle this calculation is performed:

 

For the Langley: 186(Langley Fighter's total DPS) / 780(Hosho Fighter's Survivability) = 23.85%/sec.

For the Hosho: 112(Hosho Fighter's total DPS) / 760(Langley Fighter's Survivability) = 14.74%/sec.

 

What does this mean? It means that in that engagement, the Langley's fighters has a 23.85% chance every second to shoot down one of the Hosho's fighters (That % increases the less planes there are in the squad) while the Hosho only has a 14.74% chance every second to shoot down one of the Langley's fighters.

So we can clearly see how in a 1v1 Squad Engagement, the USN CV will more or less win that engagement.

 

Ok so we got 1 Squad vs 1 Squad... But what happens if there is 1 Langley squad vs 2 Hosho Squads?

Well you would think that the two squads will combine their DPS, so simply multiply the chances by two right?

 

Well no... Apparently now, TWO rolls of 14.74% happens every second. This is because the stats of TWO squads are NOT cumulative. So neither their survivability nor their DPS are combined.

To calculate that - this formula is used every second:

Chance of N squad to shoot down 1 Plane:

1 - (1-X)^N

Where X is the % chance of plane shot down every second (1 squad vs 1 squad)

And N is the number of squads.

 

So once again we look at the Langley vs Hosho example, when both meets in battle (assuming at the exact same time)

This calculation is performed: 1 - (1-0.2385)^2 = 27.3%/sec.

 

So when 2 Hosho squads meets 1 Langley squad, the Langley still retains the 23.85%/sec chance to shoot down a Hosho Fighter.

But the 2 Hosho Squads will now have a 27.3%/sec chance to shoot down 1 Langley Fighter.

 

Bear in mind that this is calculations are ALL made with the assumption that both meet at the SAME time and both have FULL squadrons of 6(USN) or 4(IJN). The % values will differ when the planes are shot down during an engagement. This calculation is to show in engagement which squad will shoot down the other's fighter first.

 

With that, here are our calculations:

(No Crew Skills, No Ship Upgrades)

Tier

USN Fighters IJN Fighters
Individual DPS Total DPS Survivability Individual DPS Total DPS Survivability
4 31 186 760 28 112 780
5 35 210 940 35 140 970
6 42 252 1140 41 164 1150
7 53 318 1400 47 188 1360
8 63 378 1670 63 252 1620
9 73 438 1830 80 320 1820
10 80 480 2150 87 348 1970

 

  USN Squad vs IJN Squad IJN Squad vs USN Squad
Tiers 1v1 2v1 3v1 1v1 2v1 3v1 4v1
4 23.85% 42.01%   14.74% 27.30%    
5 21.65% 38.61%   14.89% 27.57%    
6 21.91% 39.02%   14.39% 26.70% 37.25%  
7 23.38% 41.30% 55.02% 13.43% 25.05% 35.12%  
8 23.33% 41.22% 54.94% 15.09% 27.90% 38.78%  
9 24.07% 42.34% 56.22% 17.49% 31.91% 43.82%  
10 24.37% 42.79% 56.73% 16.19% 29.75% 41.12% 50.65%

 

Alright lets understand this data...

Lets look at 12 Fighters vs 12 Fighters as an example, lets say a Lexington(211) fights a Shokaku(311)

​So there are 2 USN Squads vs 3 IJN Squads, each totalling 12 fighters.

This calculation is therefore performed:

USN: 1 - (1-0.2333)^2 = 41.22%/sec

IJN: 1 - (1-01749)^3 = 38.78%/sec

 

So we can prove that in the initial engagement, the USN Squads has a higher chance to shoot down the first plane, as a result, their next calculation after the Shokaku squads loses 1 fighter squad will have a higher %/sec to shoot down the next plane.

 

In summary, during squad engagements

In a 1USN vs 1IJN engagement, the USN will usually get the first enemy plane down. Their %/sec being 61%(Langley) - 50%(Midway) higher than their IJN counterparts

In a 1USN vs 2 IJN engagement, the IJN are likely to get the first enemy plane down. Their %/sec being 22%(Ryujo) - 33%(Taiho) higher than their USN counterparts

In a 2USN vs 2IJN engagement, the USN will win. Their %/sec being 65%(Ranger) - 43%(Midway) higher than their IJN counterparts

In a 2USN vs 3IJN engagement, the USN theoretically has the upper hand. Their %/sec ranges from 5%(Indy) - 18%(Ranger) higher than their IJN counterparts. Even when both sides have equal numbers, the USN has the upper hand.

 

I hope that this thread gives you an understanding of the chances at play when Fighter squadrons engages other Fighter Squadrons.

 

This thread assumes that

  • Squads will focus the same enemy squad
  • Squads are at full strength (6 for USN, 4 for IJN)
  • All squads meet at the same time

 

This thread does not account for

  • USN Planes being faster
  • Crew skills and/or Ship Upgrades
  • Ships AA Auras
  • IJN re-arm times
  • Catapult Fighters

 

tl;dr: In equal and sometimes less numbers, the USN fighters will win.

 

Edited by Deathskyz

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(Reserved)

 

Reposted on the NA Forums http://forum.worldofwarships.com/index.php?/topic/55598-usn-fighters-vs-ijn-fighters-a-detailed-statistical-analysis/

Reposted on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/WorldOfWarships/comments/3qa0zx/world_of_mathships_ijn_vs_usn_fighter_analysis/

 

Q&A from both:

  • Does AA Mechanics on Ships work the same way?

Yes. Ship AA works the same way. Ships have 3 types of AA Aura's

​Long Range AA: 88mm, 127mm etc. etc.

Medium Range AA: 40mm Bofors, 55mm Gerat etc. etc.

Close Range AA: 12.7mm Brownings, 25mm AA, 20mm Oerlikons

These 3 AA Auras are Cumulative, so the 3 different DPS will combine to form the total DPS to be used in the formula

TOTAL DPS / SURVIVABILITY = (X)*100%/sec

Multiple ships do not accumulate, rather their own separate rolls are made.

 

  • Can two planes (or more) be shot down at the same time?

Yes. Although the chances are very low and we did not include this in the original thread as the it would complicate things. But if you are interested, the chances for example of 2 Hosho Squads shooting down 2 Langley fighters at the same time are 0.147∩0.147 = 2%

Edited by Deathskyz

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Alpha Tester
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Yeh nah but IJN fighters are clearly better, because Japanese bias WG y u do dis, I have no proof of this, nor do I have any experience playing these boats or being around them or whatnot, but I have a gut feeling I am rite, and I know that I am always rite and everyone else is always wrong.

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Super Tester
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Hopefully, this chucks in more merit in fielding fighters... but why do I get this funny feeling that a TBF Avenger's rear gunner can shoot down planes a bit effective as well.

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Alpha Tester
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Yeh nah but IJN fighters are clearly better, because Japanese bias WG y u do dis, I have no proof of this, nor do I have any experience playing these boats or being around them or whatnot, but I have a gut feeling I am rite, and I know that I am always rite and everyone else is always wrong.

 

I think it is clear from the data that the opposite is true.
Edited by newnar

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Beta Tester
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I never knew about the damage mechanism of airplanes so this is a good read.

 

but still, like deathskyz mentioned, this doesn't really tell who's going to own the skies for most of the important factors are not included.

 

Plane/plane USN wins, but take in rearm speed, total number of planes, air superiority(skill) potential, total amount of ammo fielded of all the fighters, equipment, etc.

 

Anyways, thanks for the effort OP.

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Super Tester
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Air superiority potential?

 

Re-arming speed?

 

We pretty much showed you who will win in an engagement. Which, I believe, goes a long way to ensuring who owns the skies.

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Beta Tester
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We pretty much showed you who will win in an engagement. Which, I believe, goes a long way to ensuring who owns the skies.

 

hmm, no, not really. this info is a mere fraction of the factors. for example: at high tiers fighters have very low count of ammo  that 1 squadron can barely kill a torpedo squadron until he runs out of ammo. this is where re arming comes in(banshees rearm for 50 sec + 24 sec of taking of and landing(at final approach)). . etc. ..
Edited by Deicide

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hmm, no, not really. this info is a mere fraction of the factors. for example: at high tiers fighters have very low count of ammo  that 1 squadron can barely kill a torpedo squadron until he runs out of ammo. this is where re arming comes in(banshees rearm for 50 sec + 24 sec of taking of and landing(at final approach)). . etc. ..

 

But you must also remember that the USN Fighters are wayyy faster at tier 10. Meaning they can actually catch up to their prey etc. etc.

But the calculations above show the clearest and most unbiased statistics of the USN's Engagement superiority.

 

That being said, we did discover that if you send a USN Fighter squad of 4 (2 dead) against a full strength IJN squad, the USN squads will still win. This basically shows that the USN Fighter Squads can still fight understrength whereas the IJN squads really take a hit when they lose a plane.

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But you must also remember that the USN Fighters are wayyy faster at tier 10. Meaning they can actually catch up to their prey

 

just like how shokaku's fighter is faster than lexington by 6 knots, but anyways i only found the real advantage of the banshee's speed is at relocation and running away from IJN fighters(IJN can also take advantage of the dog fight skill). If you use your tier 10 fighters "catching up to their prey", you'll end up getting lured away, most effective use of them is areal denial and interception. Again, anyway speed is not really that important (at high tiers at least) so they become less of a factor as you go higher up the tiers.

 

 

That being said, we did discover that if you send a USN Fighter squad of 4 (2 dead) against a full strength IJN squad, the USN squads will still win. This basically shows that the USN Fighter Squads can still fight understrength whereas the IJN squads really take a hit when they lose a plane.

 

this is true but again this fact becomes less of a factor as you go up the tier because the fighters ammo goes down and down exponentially while their survivability jumps up(as a result when you put a banshee vs a J8n1, they won't be able to kill each other until they run out of ammo),  vice versa as you go down to lower tiers that's why we see more of the USN fighter superiority at lower tiers(e.g. 1 USN indy squad being able to handle 2 IJN Ryujo squad).

Edited by Deicide

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Member
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heh, damn u deathskyz, I'm here for ships, not math

I no voleenterr to WoMS

Because 

M=Mental

A=Abuse

T=To

H=Humans

*Jokes Aside

After ppl read this, all, I hope no US CV OP or IJN CV OP

Edited by Conkhead_12

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Beta Tester
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After ppl read this, all, I hope no US CV OP or IJN CV OP

 

to be fair, most people complain about the loadouts(flight control) and not about this(except for few).

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to be fair, most people complain about the loadouts(flight control) and not about this(except for few).

 

This doesnt seem to be the case on the NA Forums.

Its apparently only an ASIA thing it seems. We are the ones advocating this loadout situation. The rest of the servers regard this as normal.

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Meanwhile... on the NA forums..

Nobody is saying anything about IJN OP...

Its turning into a Buff IJN CV thread!!!

 

 

I don't know.. i always felt uncomfortable giving a single nation the power to completely nullify another by means of camping etc, no other class has this problem (USN DDs have higher detection which gives IJN DDs time to escape).

A certain someone is clearly underestimating the ability to fully counter a highly skilled player with an ability that doesn't require any skill at all other than clicking and relaxing while numbers do their jobs.

 

Carrier balance is far more complex than saying "we will be buffing the USN strike loadouts because we will be buffing IJN fighters". This doesn't take into account that fighters work on the same mechanics while torpedo bombers do not.

Torps obviously have different characteristic, USN have far tighter user friendly spreads, higher damage, higher health and longer range torps while IJN have faster speeds (planes and torps), distributed planes which give higher skill players perform different attack run patterns which lead to assured hits and correct me if i'm wrong but also smaller arming distances.

 

I try to be unbiased and objective but sometimes i don't understand the reasoning and militancy of people..

Edited by Deathskyz

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Super Tester
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Thumbs up to the OP making all this WoMs

hard work and informative enough mister.

but this reminds me even you are in USN you might also lose when RNG decided to troll you hard:trollface:

Do you mind to have this with Crew skills like the Tier 3 captain skill?

Edited by R3negade

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Super Tester
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As of now, we're working on something to release to the general public. Stay tuned for more.

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