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FBI_IS_WATCHING_U posted a topic in General DiscussionsI am not good at maths so there may be errors down below, please tell me if you found any~~ We all know that WG provide random bundles in the armory, the one with a ship as the big prize among the 60 bundles This time we have T9 pan asian cruiser Sejong, you may buy it with just 1000 doubloons if you are lucky enough. And here comes the problem, should we buy these bundles expecting to get a promo ship with a low price? I made some calculations and here are the results: For me, the answer is yes, if you really want to get the ship at a lower cost and you are lucky enough, but dont go further than the 37thbundle. If you want to play safe/not interested, just review the first bundle and don't buy it unless the first one is a ship. Here assumes that the price tag for a T9 ship is 19300 without any discount, and the price tag of the rest of the bundles are 500 doubloons each. so we may plot a profit/loss graph: You will see that buying the bundles are profitable until the 36.6th bundle, buying the 37thbundle will guarantee a loss even you get the ship. However, the expected value is a different story, you will start with a expected value of +305 doubloons in the first run since reviewing the bundle is free of charge, everyone should give it a try. I made a excel with all my calculations, which is also capable for similar random bundles with different settings (eg:100items including 3 ships) Expected value calculator.xlsx
What's the percentage at which you detonate? DetonationBadges / Number of non-CV matches x 100% I got 0.588% Rather low I think. I'd say I'm quite lucky then. Unless until I want to farm detonation flags at least (Exclude any CV matches as they don't detonate anyway)