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xalt posted a topic in General DiscussionsSo perhaps you've heard that you can get amongst the 2 most OP ships in the game, AKA the so-called WG "Russia Bias", the Gremy and Nikolai, with Santa's presents. And perhaps you were wondering what were the odds of you getting them by spamming a few presents(AKA gambling). Well, having gotten every single available premium through the Santa present system, I feel I can shed some light on how the process actually works. But be forewarned, if you really want the Gremy and Nikolai(at least reliably), you'll have to spent upwards of $200USD, up to a maximum of about $400(this depends highly on the number premiums you already have, but not their tiers. But to understand how this works, you have to first know the hidden "rules" of the santa game. Firstly, you will never receive a premium you already have unless you roll the same ship twice in the same "batch". I can very confidently say this because over 100 presents opened, I never got a ship I already owned, whereas some people who have only opened 20 or 10 presents but bought and opened them in large "batches" received duplicates. This is okay if you get a duplicate of a t7 or t8 ship as you get a large amount of dubloons in payout, but otherwise its quite a waste of money to get duplicate of low tier ships e.g. Ishizuchi, which results in only a small number of dubloons while still resetting your Pseudo-random distribution counter(see below). The game seems to check what ships on the pool of 20(see below) you own every time you buy/accept presents. Therefore, it is far more advisable to buy presents in small groups, preferably single, opening it, then washing and repeating(this sounds tedious doesn't really take that long). Secondly, the engine uses a pseudo-random distribution for the probability that you will receive a premium ship. What is PRD? It basically means that you have a counter on your account for each type of present. This counter increases each time you fail to get a premium (i.e. opening camo/flags) and resets to zero each time you get a premium. The higher your counter, the more likely you will get a premium on your next present. How do I know this? The frequency of getting a premium ship was too "constrained", most of the time I got 1 premium ever 4-6 presents(captain and admiral) opened. In a true random distribution, you will get long periods without any premiums, and periods where you get 3-4 premiums in quick succession. In my experience, the "gap" between each premium was never less than 1, mostly 3 or 4, and never more than 5. So you can reasonably expect to get a premium every roughly 5 presents opened or so(or about $15 USD per premium for captain's presents). This is very likely PRD as it is a method that game developers often use to prevent players(gamblers?) from getting disenchanted and quitting from having a long patch of bad "luck", or jealousy at other player's "luck". There's no real "luck", though, only hard mathematics. Thirdly, for captain's presents, which I mostly used, each time I rolled a premium ship, the engine is much more likely to give you a ship of a lower "tier" out of the pool of available premium. E.g. my first premium was emden, then texas, then marblehead, then anshan, arizona, etc etc, through to tier 7 and t8. I highly suspect that the 2 "Russia Bias" premiums are considered as "tier 9" for this santa game as I got them only right at the end, with Lo Yang in between. What this means is that if you already have many or all of the low tier premiums, buying captain's presents is a pretty good idea. I would NOT recommend admirals presents for most players who already have t8 premiums as, from what I understand from other players' accounts, the PRD odds for getting a premium with the admiral present is about the same as captain, but the only difference is that it is more likely to give you a higher tier ship, which is pointless if you already have t8 and t7 premiums. The pool of ships available for santa is given on https://worldofwarships.asia/en/news/specials-and-events/santas-wanted/ . Ignore the part where it lists premiums that are listed under each present, from what I gather it is possible to get every available ship with every available present, with the possible exception of Prinz Eugen. So to sum it up, if you already have many low/mid-tier premiums listed on the list of 20, e.g. Emden, Texas, Marblehead, Anshan, etc, then it's worthwhile to play captain's presents, but buy them in small batches, preferably one-by-one. If you have neither high nor low-tier, it may be worthwhile to buy Admiral's presents. This also means that you should check what premiums your friend already before you buy presents for them. I did not extensively test commander's presents(the $1USD ones) as I bought 10 of them initially and did not get a single premium out of the batch. In hindsight, it may still be a decent investment though it is tedious to buy and open them in small batches.